From 7,500 kg to 20,574 BGN: A Bottom-Up Income Statement

The full P&L for one raspberry season, walked from raw fruit through transformation, distribution, and management overhead to operating profit.

The numbers

Every line in this article is consolidated on the Canonical Figures page.

Layer one: revenue

Sum the eight SKUs at retail price and the season produces 90,612 лв. Wholesale-channel revenue is lower per unit (typically 75% of retail) but the model assumes all channels at retail for a clean upper bound. A more conservative blended estimate — 60% retail / 40% wholesale — would put revenue closer to 81,500 лв, a ~10% downside.

Layer two: cost of goods sold

COGS per SKU is the sum of: raw raspberries at 3.80 лв/kg internal transfer price; sugar at 2.00 лв/kg; citric acid at 4.60 лв/kg; direct labour at 4.00 лв/hour by recipe; electricity and gas; packaging (jar 0.40–0.85 лв, bottle, label, lid).

Aggregate COGS for the season: 60,592 лв. That leaves 30,020 лв of gross profit — a 33% gross margin.

The internal transfer price of 3.80 лв/kg for the fruit is itself a modeling choice worth questioning. The real Bulgarian wholesale market is paying €1.20–1.30/kg (~2.40 лв/kg) for frozen raspberries [^1]. Pricing the internal transfer at 3.80 captures the opportunity cost of the fruit's alternative use, but may be optimistic given current Balkan oversupply.

Layer three: operating expenses

Below the line, the operation incurs ten OpEx categories totaling 9,446 лв per season:

Category	лв	Share
Management salary (60 лв/day × 60 active days)	3,600	38%
Driver and distributor wages	2,400	25%
Fuel and consumables (distribution)	1,566	17%
Accounting	900	10%
Advertising	500	5%
Repairs and maintenance	180	2%
Cleaning supplies	120	1%
Electricity (outside recipes)	120	1%
Water	60	<1%

Notice what's missing: depreciation. The 12,883 лв of capex should be amortized over equipment life. With a 7-year average asset life, true annual depreciation is around 1,840 лв — almost 20% of current OpEx.

Layer four: EBITDA

Gross profit minus OpEx equals 20,574 лв of EBITDA for the season. Roughly 22.7% of revenue.

What the headline EBITDA still doesn't include

• Taxes. Flat-rate registration via Закон за подпомагане на земеделските производители is a different tax base than ЕООД with регистрация по ЗДДС.
• Interest. The two short-term loans (80 лв of fees) don't surface here.
• Owner draws beyond management salary. The 3,600 лв management line is a wage, not a profit distribution.
• Cash-flow timing. Capex hits in March, first revenue lands in June, working capital crunches in May.

How sensitive is the EBITDA to assumptions?

Assumption	Base	Downside	EBITDA impact
Yield (kg/декар)	500	380 (Targovishte 2024 [^2])	−24%, ~15,600 лв
Channel mix	100% retail	60% retail / 40% wholesale	−10%, ~18,500 лв
Spoilage	0%	5%	−2%, ~20,200 лв

A pessimistic scenario combining all three reduces EBITDA from 20,574 лв to roughly 11,200 лв — still positive, but tight enough that a single bad season could push the operation into net loss. The mitigation is value-added concentration — which is the whole argument of the plan.